Bonds memorabilia a real 'cool' thing

By Mike Dodd, USA TODAY

Barry Bonds is productive at the plate, but not at the cash register for sports collectors.

A Dallas auction house's offer to pay $1 million for the baseball Bonds hits for his record-breaking 756th home run notwithstanding, the market for memorabilia of the San Francisco Giants slugger is tepid at best.

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The public's ambivalence for the slugger outside San Francisco — just 34% of fans in a USA TODAY-Gallup poll say they'd consider him the greatest home run hitter ever if he breaks Aaron's record — are cooling the collectibles hobby's natural draw to memorabilia attached to his history-making home run, experts say.

"We saw a deterioration of the pricing on stuff from Barry Bonds," says Doug Allen, president/chief operating officer of Mastro Auctions. "I think it's actually gaining a little bit of momentum now, but not to the level it was when he established the record" for single-season home runs in 2001.

Heritage Auction Galleries announced in mid-May its offer to purchase the 756 ball for $1 million, and memorabilia experts say the lucky fan who catches the ball should jump at that. They estimate the ball would command about half that in the collectibles market, and a Bonds indictment in the federal steroids probe would further deflate it.

"Whoever … catches this ball, get it to market as quickly as you can," says Michael Barnes, the St. Louis sports marketing agent who represented the sellers of the balls from Mark McGwire's 70th and Bonds' 73rd home runs.

Both Barnes and Allen say there is a million-dollar Bonds ball on the horizon, just not this one. It's the last home run he hits, which will establish the record for Alex Rodriguez and others to chase.

"I'll offer $1 million for the last one he hits," Allen says. "That's the ball that should reside in the Hall of Fame. That's a special ball."

No historic baseball has come close in price to the $3.05 million (including commissions) comics and toy magnate Todd McFarlane paid for McGwire's 70th home run ball in 1998. It's the only one to fetch $1 million or more.

McFarlane, who paid $517,500 for the 73rd home run ball, says he's much more interested in Bonds' final career homer than 756.

"It's a sexy ball, and it's an interesting ball. It's a hell of a conversation starter," McFarlane says of the one that breaks Aaron's career mark. "But still, for a guy like me … I want the record. You go for No. 1, you don't go for a conversation piece."

Experts estimate the 756 ball would sell for $300,000 to $500,000 in a public auction, perhaps as high as $750,000. The history of Bonds' historic home run balls shows the uncertainty.

The 700 ball was sold online for a reported $804,129, a figure experts say wasn't verified. "Nobody in our field takes that at face value," Barnes says. It subsequently sold at public auction for $102,000. Bonds' 715th, to pass Babe Ruth, sold on eBay for a reported price of $220,100.

The ball from Hank Aaron's final homer sold in a 1999 private sale for $650,000, a figure Barnes says experts accept as the second-highest paid for a baseball.

Any speculation about the value of 756 carries an asterisk — no one knows if someone would buy it for publicity or as a tie-in to a business deal. Heritage officials acknowledge the high profile their offer gives the company was a factor.

"If you look at the last couple of big baseballs and who bought them and why, it was publicity driven," Barnes says. "If somebody does pay more than a half million or three-quarters of a million, it's not going to be a die-hard collector.

"There aren't Barry Bonds collectors out there at this level."

The value of Bonds' baseball cards has declined in the last 1½ years, a period of his career marked by injury and baseball's steroids controversy.

His main rookie card, a 1987 Fleer issue, is valued at $25 in near-mint condition, according to Beckett Baseball, which publishes price guides. That's down from its peak of $60 two years ago. His Topps "Traded" card, part of a late-season set in 1986, is valued at $20. (Baseball cards from the mid-1980s hold less value than other eras because they were greatly mass-produced).

A better gauge, says Sports Collectors Digest editor T.S. O'Connell, is autographed cards inserted in packs the last three or four years. Some were approaching $300 18 months ago and "are now closer to $200," he says.

The values on Bonds cards aren't commensurate with his accomplishments when compared with those of his peers, he says. However, memorabilia linked to an historic moment could have a life of its own, he adds.

Kevin Haake, Beckett baseball editor, says there are signs that Bonds' strong early-season performance and the upcoming record is drawing collectors' interest.

"We've seen a strong up-tick in trade value and sales activity," but not a big price spike yet, he says. For instance, outlets that were discounting Bonds cards are now selling them for book value.

"As he approaches Aaron, the more casual fan is becoming interested," he says. But, he adds, it's likely to be a short-term spike and not necessarily a sign of long-term growth.